Invitation to the Pandemic | Books By Ed Mitchell

Please do not presuppose by the title of this article that I’m going to present a political view, for or against some political party while offering answers to the brown-colored questions below.

Why, because as a former Army officer I’m not into blaming an opponent. I’m into quick and effective problem solving. One slick way that I’ve learned to rapidly get to a good solution is getting the people facing a problem off of a blank sheet of paper. In other words: free up teammates to provide much needed improvements.

I do that by proposing or writing out a possible solution and then asking my team “What’s wrong with this approach. How can we improve it?” That is what I’m doing with this article. Along the way if you see weaknesses or have a better answer, I encourage you to add a comment to this blog so others can see what you have to offer. He we go.

How should our national leadership respond to the 2020 China coronavirus pandemic along our physical borders and at air/land/sea entry points?

You certainly are not going to get much insight about that macro-question from TV news or opinion outlets. They now practice reporting as fast as possible what happened. But you rarely hear any of them address the importance of proactive planning. That’s why you haven’t heard them ask challenging questions of senior health and security officials, regarding pandemic-mitigation operations at our borders. Such as:

What likely arrival scenario is our government preparing for?

What criterion will cause additional border restrictions to go into effect?

What are those restrictions?

What operational changes are needed to ensure effective implementation?

National Health & Security Scenario: The below likely-scenario is provided to help the reader recognize the risks of allowing entry into our country. The following four variables are addressed to clearly describe a possible pandemic-scenario.

#1 Virus type

….#2 Spread / movement outside and toward the U.S.

…….#3 Weather effect at arrival

………#4 Vaccine availability at the time of the border crossing

Virus Type at Arrival: The Wuhan China virus demonstrates a R4 infection rate (fast spreader), has a 2.3% fatality rate (higher than SARS), and a 20% ICU hospitalization rate. This virus doesn’t care about political parties or if you are brown, black, white, gay, religious, Italian, Brazilian, kind or cruel, wealthy or poor. It just wants to get into the nearest human host it can reach. Then it wants to thrive in the host until it is strong enough to float through the air or be spilled or handed to other unsuspecting humans. And if the host travels across borders the pandemic spreads farther and farther. And open borders are best because there is less chance the virus will be spotted and stopped from expanding into other population centers.

unprecedented crisis coronavirus s. korea — City-Cluster in Daegu Korea

Spread/Movement Outside and Toward the U.S. The China coronavirus will continue infecting people around the globe during the month of March and April. The total-infected will double from the current number of 83,700+ up to 167,000+ by March 30 and 251,000 by April 30.

Every continent will have multiple cities with infected and dying patients. City-clusters ( a city with 300 or more infected ) will exist in nations in all continents, including Latin and South America. Community transmission (unknown source of transmission) will be more and more common.

City lockdowns will be the standard immediate-response by national health officials and leaders of city-clusters. People will seek to move out-of-country away from infected population areas. Travelers will depart for the U.S. from city-clusters via non-stop and multiple-leg air, land, and sea-transport or by walking.

A steady stream of travelers seeking to get into the U.S. will appear at hundreds of border entry points requiring screening to determine if they can enter. Many will be contagious but not showing symptoms. As is being seen at departure and arrival-airports today, some people will lie to avoid being quarantined. They will lie that they have not traveled from a city-cluster nation in the last two weeks.

singapore hotter than wuhan climate stop coronavirus — Singapore Hotter than Wuhan, China

Weather Effect: Warmer weather will not significantly slow the infection rate of the virus, as is occurring. February infections in Singapore and Mumbai, India adds doubt to those hoping warmer weather will significantly slow the spread of the virus.

Vaccine Availability: The U.S., China, Israel, and Canada will fast-track potential vaccines into human trials but approval and large-scale production will not allow wide-spread inoculation to begin until late-April. Month-long home/self-quarantining will remain the primary anti-pandemic procedure for families to avoid bumping into virus-carrying people.

Triggering Criterion and Restrictions: As soon as a nation has a reported a city-cluster of 350 or more infected people, the following restrictions shall be implemented:

>> U.S. citizens may return from a nation with a 350+ city-cluster to the U.S., but will be placed into immediate quarantine for 14 days.

>> Any non-American-citizen will not be allowed to enter the U.S. if they have been in a nation within the last two weeks, that has a city-cluster of 350 or more people. Nor will they be allowed to travel by any U.S. owned commercial transportation to the U.S. For example, today travelers from China (78,000+), Deagu South Korea (2,337), and Milan Italy (655) would not be allowed into the U.S.

>> All aliens attempting to illegally enter into the U.S. will be arrested and immediately sent back outside the U.S northern or southern border.

7th cavalry charge 5 horses — U.S. Cavalry to the rescue

Implementation / Changes: Currently, the U.S. does not track traveler movements. However, to prevent a person from hiding that they began or passed through a state with a 350+ cluster, the FAA must coordinate with foreign owned airline companies to receive passenger tracking information from the first leg of travel through the final one into the USA.

Conclusion: I believe a pandemic is coming. The scenario presented above scopes how that pandemic can present itself. It also scopes the challenge our government faces to prevent easy entry of the virus. Current traveler entry points need more hardening. Plus, our physical southern and northern borders must be closed to illegal entry.

However, Some readers may prefer open borders so they may disagree with the suggested triggering criterion and restrictions. If you are one of those people, please comment on how open borders can remain during a pandemic. Some may say the restrictions harm privacy rights. Please comment how to balance human rights versus a killer virus. But I hope that a majority of readers will agree that there are likely scenarios that could harm the USA, that triggering criteria and restrictions must be publicized in order to protect the population from uncontrolled spreading of the virus. So, if you think there is some merit in the suggested criterion and restrictions, please comment on this blog.